Libertarians Are Ready

Libertarians would NEVER have a $1.3 trillion budget. The other two parties miss the obvious that government only helps itself. Government is all about growing government jobs. Twenty five million government employees are lobbyists for their own jobs. Day after day they make themselves essential to their elected bosses, about 2% of the government jobs

It is complicated, yes, but it shouldn’t be. Libertarians are the only party that can simplify it. Our philosphy is that government is a service to the people. If you need something pay for it, non-profit. Pick from the menu like McDonalds and pay for what you want. If it is complicated, simplify it.

Government employees should provide a service. Working for the people should be, a sacrifice. Make the jobs five year stints as an aid to gain experience but no golden parachute.

A government job is a drag on the economy, it shuffles money from one account to another. Such a job can never be better than a job in industry because government doesn’t produce anything. It is a giant drain for taxpayer money, mainly just taking money to pay salaries and benefits.

Two years ago we all voted for a shake-up, voted for a shock, voted to change even if it isn’t the best change. But that change hasn’t come yet, even though there has been some deregulation. Trump signed the order to retire two regulations for every new one, and that is a modest goal. I wonder how it is going.

This country could stand sun-setting 20 unenforced laws for every new one. We could cut 50% of the laws we have with no impact on the people. We wouldn’t even know how much freer we were.

We have long passed the point where government has stopped enforcing their own STUPID laws because they themselves know the laws are bad. We are all criminals if we drive cars. So change the laws so they reflect the way people drive.

Why don’t we repeal those laws? Because those laws generate taxes and those taxes generate pensions and other benefits for government employees.

Libertarians have a plan. Simplify government. No pensions for government workers paid by taxpayers. Let taxes pay for government service with a transparent budget as a non-profit works, like the post office works.

If the government makes a monopoly the government can provide that service as a non-profit for some realistic competition with business. Health care, auto insurance, utilities… If business can do it better, please, do it better.

The other two parties don’t have a plan other than to turn it over to lawmakers, and I guarantee you lawmakers will not remove laws but rather make more laws.

Unless those lawmakers are Libertarian. Dismantle government. Vote libertarian this time. It only makes sense.

Talking Points — Libertarian Introduction

Libertarianism, like democracy and republicanism are admired principles of government.   Libertarianism is the will to live free and let live free.  It is about trusting neighbors and friends over government.  We were never in favor of a war on drugs or treating families based on sex.  Families know who they are better than government.

Historically we have been associated more with Republicans because of our quest for smaller government.  Our problems with Republicans, however, are huge.  Any problem that can be solved without abridging freedom or costing the taxpayer should be solved in that way.

Huge cutbacks in government we propose would be opposed by Republicans  about law and order and the military.  We are against the next war and the military industrial complex.  Our military should be for our defense.  Government should not be involved in personal decisions about sex, marriage, abortion or drugs.  The State should not dictate to its citizens how to run their lives.

Democrats are socially liberal as a group, and therefore we naturally gravitate on social issues, but we do not believe in legislating too many issues.  Transparency of government is a fundamental issue.   Democrats make stupid laws to protect us all from annoying Republicans.  Since our founding as a nation the American people  have steadily  become less and less free.

Optimism.  Humanity is doing better than ever before in nearly every front, except our governments.  Governments get more complicated and expensive without doing much more to help the governed.  Government workers are hobbled in their attempts to effectively help our peoples by laws and policies that help and protect mainly the government workers themselves.  Our attempts at saving the environment and providing necessary services to our peoples most often result in abridging liberty without any positive result.   Far from their stated purposes, our new laws mainly protect lawmakers, lawyers, insurance companies and government workers who administer and enforce those laws and policies.

There are 25,000,000 government employees and only 2% are elected.  Un-elected government workers are lobbyists for higher pay, better benefits and other perks for government employees. Libertarians are the only party who believes government should provide service on a non-profit basis.  If the service is necessary taxpayers should have no problem paying for the service and understanding what they get for your money in transparent business transactions.

Government regulations often create industries with laws that require licensed professionals.  There are too many government services required by law that force us to hire a class of professionals, like lawyers,, whose jobs are protected by laws, policies and tradition.  Doing so makes our government king-makers.  We need independent lay people who can help simplify the processes required by government to reduce costs and increase the effectiveness of government.  We need fewer licensed professionals whose services are required by law. If government creates such a protected class of professionals the government should also provide a not-for-profit group of such professionals available to hire as well.

Our government was designed and built before the age of instant communication.  Our offices and services are administered with policies, regulations and a work ethic that is outdated.  Government does not use effective modern work methods that have been tried and proved in business.  For example, our government offices keep high paid, educated, well informed service providers in offices during work hours when often a receptionist and email or computer terminal would provide better service and more access to the required expertise in a reasonable period of time, costing much less to the taxpayer. 

Outside of government, whatever we put our minds to we accomplish.  Polar bear and bee populations are up. We are presently carbon neutral and our rivers, lakes, oceans and bays have less pollution than they did centuries ago.  And for centuries we have successfully shaped our environment for our purposes. Thankfully all of the alarmist predictions of doom until now have been wrong.

In many ways human purposes are accomplished in spite of the governments of the world.  Although there is a lot of corruption most of us are good people who want to help but we are working in a corrupt system.  Adversarial politics and self-serving confidentiality agreements put us at odds with each other and protect the greedy and corrupt.  Our system seems designed to confuse and intimidate and keep us from knowing the lies and collusion which harms us all.  Examples are limitless.  Look at any lawsuit or plea bargain or tax deduction or new law and there is a story of confidential negotiations that helped only the professionals protected by confidentiality and resulted in a decision which costs the tax payer and did little to help the tax payer.  Those who benefit are too often those who negotiate in confidence.

World governments serve a necessary purpose, protecting and helping to provide for humanity, but governments try to do much more than that, which is the heart of our political problem.  Governments should help humanity solve its problems but in many cases government does little more than ensure that important information is hidden and confused and difficult to access while picking and choosing who is going to get rich when new laws and policies are instituted.

Practically it is not possible to roll back to the simpler days of the libertarian Founding Fathers.  Our systems are set but do not address many of the modern the needs of the people.  Government audits and regulates the huge profits of monopolies ostensibly because regulating and limiting profit is better because there is so much opposition to the government handling such things without profit. We pay for government regulated monopolies twice.  Once for the services of monopoly and another time with tax dollars for the government to watch the monopoly.

Government requires insurances of many kinds thereby facilitating profits for insurance providers. And health care is available to anyone anywhere in the world by just showing up to a hospital or clinic.  No provider will refuse to care for you,  but in the US the charge for that care is the largest cause of personal debt and bankruptcy.  Government must recognize and aid in facilitating reasonable health care, provide public utilities and maintain reasonable public services without creating profits for business at tax payer expense. 

Health care and auto insurances are a cases in point.  Our government does little more than force people to buy insurance in order to enrich insurers.  New regulations on environment force people to buy services from  a protected class of Licensed Environmental Professionals who can charge whatever they want and do little more that provide very expensive proof that very expensive cleanup is needed. If the government creates a monopoly or forces us to buy services from a regulated industry the government should then administer that monopoly or industry as a non-profit.  Utilities and other monopolies, insurers, and licensed professionals are audited and regulated at the expense of the tax payer,  This businesses are required by laws which facilitates the industry’s  profits, the industry’s very existence, at the expense of the tax payer.  Government forces us to pay whatever price the industry sets.

Government becomes the instrument of marketing and selling services whereby a favored class of people get richer and the tax payer pays.  If government creates a monopoly government can also provide a not-for-profit provider of the services of the monopoly.  There can be no fair competition if the government chooses who is going to get rich.  If the government requires auto or heath insurance the government can provide auto or health insurance, for example.  If private industry can do it more efficiently, good.

The entire Justice Industry is outmoded and unjust, reliant on bullying and intimidation and lying in order to settle disputes.  Transparency is what is needed, a re-vamping and simplifying of a system where one might reasonably go to prison without ever having harmed or endangered another human being.  Arcane rules of plea bargaining and adversaries arguing law and procedure over justice are at the root of the shocking costs of law enforcement to all of us in resources, well-being and insecurity.

If what I have said so far is not what you thought a Libertarian believes:  Good.

We all know of stupid laws and we are all afraid that whatever we want to do might be illegal, or we have to overcome silly challenges by our government .to accomplish anything.  Libertarians, like all people, recognize rules are needed, but whatever rules will solve a problem while allowing the people to keep the most rights and freedoms is the libertarian solution.  Our test is whether a rule, policy or law will solve a problem while preserving human liberty and dignity.  I venture to say not many of our laws can be characterized as such a rule, policy or law.

One well know trick of government is to add a layer of uncertainty to every service.  Famous example:  We don’t pay taxes on the value of our property, but rather we pay a mill rate.  There is no reason for a mill rate, which is a tool to remove us one step from knowing the tax rate we are paying.  The owner of a house worth $100,000 or a car worth $10,000 pays a percentage of the value, but that percentage is hidden behind the useless mill rate which only serves to confuse.

And much of all government is designed to protect Lawyers, Insurance Companies, Utilities and Banks.  Simply everyone says “I can’t give you legal advice…”  Why not?  As if you will sue me if I tell you what I would do.  And the law requires us to buy insurance.  If we are required by law to pay it, we should be allowed to buy it from those who require it.  The government should sell insurance if the government requires insurance.  Otherwise the government is king-making, creating industries and rich businessmen that provide a government mandated service.

Look at all the monopolies: utilities, broadcasting, trash removal, aspects of banking, insurances, just about anything except not health care providers.  They are not a monopoly so they can charge whaterver they want/  I don’t care if I pay the only government allowed monopoly or if I pay the government directly for those services.  It seems to me reducing the regulation of monopolies is more efficient than regulating and auditing the monopoly for what services they must provide and then how much profit they can make doing it.

Require transparency to reduce government.  There are thousands of untold examples of unethical but legal behavior in our businesses, and government, and especially the courts.  Our law enforcement and civil justice industry relies for a large part on bullying and lies to settle disputes.  We have the means without new laws to publicly sanction those who deliberately behave unethically for profit. We don’t need tax payer money, but civilian watch-dogs who can discover and publish the truth aided with government transparency.

We are so afraid someone will sue us or we are breaking a law when all we want is the truth.  Lawyers lie, politicians lie, we expect the lies.  So let’s keep a record of lies, of unethical business behavior, courtroom trickery, of fighting dirty.  Maybe the people of the world want the unethical and the slimy captains of industry to lead us, but some of us think our government should be honest.

Let us see the confidential workings, the bullying and procedural tactics that impede justice in the  justice industry. I would like to read and understand why a hospital charges me $590 for an office visit but accepts $183 from my insurance company as payment in full.   If I did not have insurance I would have to pay three times the accepted fee and would have to go through bankruptcy to avoid paying it.   Create a list of reasonable and customary rates the uninsured will be charged for health care and prescription drugs.

The same with vaccines.  Sure small pox and measles and polio and all the well known vaccines are good for everyone.  But whenever a new vaccine comes out like HPV or Shingles or even the annual flu vaccine government agencies effectively market these drugs with tax payer money.  The government convinces a group of people who just believe that since it is a vaccine it must be good for everyone.  It is a medicine, and many vaccines are not very effective medicines but the pharmaceutical industry which charges many times more for such medicines in the unregulated US market than they do in every other country is the most profitable industry in the world.  And whether or not your vaccine is covered by your insurance you can bet your insurance company is not losing money either.

Public health, environmental issues, utilities and other monopolies all enjoy a special partnership with the government.  The government spends tax payer money to recommend the services of these for-profit businesses.  Perhaps the businesses are not mentioned by name, but our money advertises the benefits of buying things from these industries.  They make a profit because of our tax dollars advertising their products. Prohibit government marketing of private industry concerns such as environment, utilities, health care, financial concerns, insurance, and broadcasting.  Taxpayers should not pay to enrich business.

I am libertarian for the people, not libertarian for business and government.  People should be free to be naked if they want to without having “predator” attached to their names for the rest of their lives.  To climb on the roof and howl at the moon occasionally without going to prison.  To be managed by their families and friends and neighbors and not put in the System, which only benefits the justice industry, lawyers, guards and insurances.

To make a bad situation worse, call the police.  Involving the government is necessary by law, which is ironic, since involving the government is almost never the best choice to solve a problem.

The biggest monopoly in our country is the Justice Industry.  Police, Judicial, Immigration, Intelligence, Prisons and involving Insurance, Education, Health Care, the Military…  Judicial concerns touch every single aspect of our lives.  Whether or not we are free is directly dependent upon whether or not the Judicial Industry is going to mess with us.  If we are going to better manage and become a freer society our laws have to be simpler.

Health Care – Immigration – Education –

Against Alarmism

is called Alarmism, Your race is doing better than ever before, and you are looking for problems. That is fine, but every time your race finds clear and evident problems your race finds solutions as well. Polar bears? Wolves? Bees? And now you are crying about other insects. I like having less insects and I like warmer springs and falls. If this portends the future I am okay with that.
Population growth? Right now it is as about 1% per year. Sure it is exponential. It is growing slower than the economy. And the only solution would be to tell people which people are most valuable and cull the herd. No one wants to do that. But we are doing a good job of keeping things in check. Presumably with education and women’s empowerment we will only have those people who are valuable to us, If you know differently that would be a different discussion.
It is a disaster when power goes out and Florida doesn’t have A/C, people die. You should worry about that. People can’t come out of their caves and not because of climate change but because people don’t adapt to the climate they were born with.
People don’t find value in living within the natural system, so they change their climate in their caves and other living spaces and only have to go out briefly between one cave and the next. It doesn’t hurt the environment as much as it does your brethren. Inspire people to accept their climate. That is a calling for you, David.
Animal populations are higher than ever, none are going extinct. We are looking for problems but those problems are us. We are our problems. We don’t spread the problem, we clean up more than any human civilization ever did before, but we don’t surface. Like an ant cave the vast majority of us don’t surface.
It is only a problem if that is not how we want our lives to be.

Non-Partisan Views of Gun Control

I am Libertarian, so my interest in government is about giving people freedom, trusting people over government.  I oppose taking away rights and freedoms we have unless it can be clearly shown to help us all.

Left over from Prohibition are draconian and nonsensical laws against distilling alcohol completely out of whack with normalcy.  If you distill your alcohol that is $10,000 plus ten years. Even just possessing illegally distilled liquor is $5,000 plus five years. So if you want to talk about reasonable laws in the USA we need to first start with simplifying the existing ones or we continue a very bad trend.  To be fair, the ATF says they do not prosecute de-stilling violations very much, which puts us further at the mercy of the generous legal system that allows us to do things that are illegal at their own discretion.  I thank them and honor them for this generosity but still believe the unenforced laws should be repealed.   

I have a pistol license but I do not own any guns. If I thought the laws were going to change, though, I just might buy some. I enjoy target shooting, and have hunted a few times…not much into fishing either.  But shooting a pistol in a range is fun.  If you want to go with me some time the range I use allows us to borrow guns.

My point is the judicial industry in the US sux and if you think prohibiting something will change people’s behavior, well, I have some pot right here and that is illegal in every state by Federal law. Speeding (every single person who has ever driven), prostitution (the offer of money), pirating music (Happy Birthday and  the Macarena are copyrighted), copyright laws (don’t get me started), peeing outside, connecting to public wi-fi without permission, poker, and don’t even start examining building and fire codes and zoning and sewer use and environmental ….

Police have too much discretion as we see in the news every day. They could arrest anyone at any time if they name a law that might be broken. And there are lots of laws.  You must be very white to suggest a new law will help.  Most of us are now aware that if you want to make a bad situation worse call the police, or involve the government.

Suggesting we make things MORE restricted irks me. Things are restricted enough. Everyone is a criminal and we just exist at the generosity of cops who are either not aware of all the laws or don’t like to do a lot of paperwork.  Although I am not a fan of confidentiality it seems necessary to have such laws just because nearly everything is illegal and if police can look at personal photos and records they can arrest us (not that they would do so, of course).

And when we start talking about our prison system we have double the prisoners and double the costs to the taxpayer for them per capita than any other country. China has a few more prisoners than us, but China has three times the population.  We imprison five times more than the world average, about 0.01% of our population (touching the families of nearly 25% of the population) while the world average is 0.002%.

So more laws will not help fix any problem. I think we should try education.  And we start by simplifying and repealing the STUPID laws we already have.  When we do that we are making a step toward a solution to the social problems, the divisions, the education of our people.  The government isn’t going to do this for us.  We have to take responsibility for our people, our friends, our families, our own lives.

A Non-Partisan View: an ongoing discussion

A non-partisan reaction to the  essay by Speaker Arisimowicz which has been called a concise description why the Connecticut Republican budget which recently passed is a disaster. [Shown after the non-partisan reaction below]

Begins quite partisan saying the Republican budget is “severely flawed” and some who voted didn’t really mean it to pass, Looks like a stretch. The Republican budget looks to me like a serious offering.

Every Democrat claims UConn needs tax money to thrive. The Republicans would cut $200 million more than the Democrats, plus “Requires professors to teach an additional class …; eliminates free tuition for employees and families, requires UConn Health to enter into a public-private partnership.”

Aresimowicz complains the Republican budget eliminates $435 million for business development and job training programs. The bulk of those cuts comes from the State Departments “direct financial assistance to businesses” according to the Courant. But it also eliminates aid to small businesses for a voucher program, apprenticeships, worker training and energy efficiency incentives.

I think I can see why Democrats complain louder about the $200 million from UConn than the $435 million from financial assistance to businesses, and that looks partisan. We should look at both dollar amounts and what we expect to receive from that money.

He say Hartford would file bankruptcy and close the XL Center. All I see is not funding $115 million for renovations of the Center. Don’t know where he gets the bankruptcy from.

It may not be true that shutting funding for things will shut those things down. And the rest of his assertions are not easily found in any budget synopsis I have found.

The truth is the essay is quite partisan but calls for unity, rings hollow, disingenuous.

Democrats mainly point to UConn for why the budget is bad, but in reality education and health care are very, very expensive and perhaps if the people who received those services had to pay fairly for them we would then find more realistic pricing. And those providing education services competed fairly with other providers the quality would go up, but that might just be a pipe dream.

There is the other case, that if world class education is cheaper here than elsewhere then better people would come here. It is a decision beyond my pay grade, but I think everyone should see the clear choice instead of partisan posturing.

I would love to see some soul searching among some policy makers that truly look at the differences. Aresimowicz is right that the differences are not very large.

“As the Republican budget that narrowly passed the legislature last week awaits an assured, and deserved, veto from the Governor, a path must still be forged to a final budget that reflects the priorities of Connecticut’s residents.
“As it continues to be analyzed and assessed, clearly this Republican budget is severely flawed and not the answer to our fiscal challenges. There may even be some legislators who voted for it that never expected it to actually become law, and prefer that it doesn’t.

“There is general acknowledgment that it would decimate the University of Connecticut and threaten UConn’s place as a top public university in the country. It would also undercut the entire Connecticut State University system and potentially result in the closure of some community colleges.

“Eliminating business development and job training programs such as funding for the successful Small Business Express and evening hours at our Technical High Schools would stunt job creation efforts, while ending the Angel Investor Tax Credit would stifle entrepreneurship. Each of these would be counterproductive for our future economy.

“The Republican budget would also assure our Capital City of Hartford would have to file for bankruptcy, and likely cause the shutdown of the XL Center.

“The list goes on and on, including allowing unfettered corporate and special interests influence back into our elections with the elimination of the Citizens Election Program, and shutting down the public’s access to their government via television and online through the Connecticut Network (CTN).

“Though it is important for people to understand the negative impact of this budget, I’d be remiss if I didn’t note that common ground does exist in many areas. These include changing the relationship between the state and the municipalities, reforming the state contracting system, and phasing out the income tax on Social Security payments.

“Yet, the fact remains that our state does need a final budget, and needs it soon. October is a particularly critical month for our cities and towns, with first quarter education aid and other upcoming municipal payments due.

“I’ve been saying all along that with a disastrous scenario for our schools on the horizon, it is critical that we work together and compromise with the Governor and Republicans to reach a bipartisan agreement on a final budget in short order that can become law.

“Bipartisanship is what the public wants, and with a split Senate and a slim House margin that is what is needed. That message rings truer and louder with every day that goes by. Every legislator hears it from their constituents at home in their districts.

“There is no more room or time for political posturing. The good news is that the two parties are not that far apart on the bottom line, including important areas such as funding for our schools and helping out our hospitals.

“Time is of the essence, so let’s all finally put our “D” and “R” labels aside, put up a “C” for Connecticut, and work together for the betterment of our state we all love.”

Joe Aresimowicz, D-Berlin, is speaker of the House of Representatives.


Corrupt and Unethical, but not Illegal

This has NOTHING to do with Obamacare.

I have no idea why this is not screamed from the mountaintops:  Our Healthcare System is Corrupt!  Just because it is legal does not mean it isn’t unethical, anti-competitive, bad for the economy and the nation.

We complain about third world countries and bribes and corruption when our system is the most corrupt of all, but legal.  We pay our Congress $30,000,000 a day (salary, overhead, expenses) to literally do nothing.  Our system is designed to make lawyers, insurance companies and lawmakers rich.  We require those jobs, we practically require them to be rich, with laws and more laws.  We have to buy insurance, we have to hire lawyers, we have to pay our lawmakers. We make people immune from ethics and the harm that they do.

For the price of a colonoscopy in Torrington one can fly to Costa Rica, have your colonoscopy, stay three nights in a large beachside hotel, and return with $3000 in your pocket.  You can get health care that is as good or better from a neighboring country for a tenth the cost.  And we all scream free enterprise.  Why do we want no government oversight over the obscene prices of our health care?  And why do want the government in our homes when we install a light switch?  The disconnect is obvious.  We are brainwashed.

Why is that?  I wondered why people go to Mexico or Canada or the internet to buy their prescription drugs.  But now I know.  A drug I was prescribed that cost about $100 a dose I bought from China for $9 including shipping. Why?  Is there an answer beyond corruption?  Is there a better word?

The cost of corruption is that this will be an international world.  Fly to Mexico and stay in a hospital room for $50 a day, or in the US for $1000 – $2500 per night.  Routine procedures in the US cost more than double the amount they cost in the next highest country.  And there are two prices in the US, one when you have insurance and one when you don’t.  Does that make sense to anyone?

I run a computer repair company and I wish I could make people buy insurance for my services, and after they pay for the insurance I could charge them triple for my service.  But that is okay, for them the cost of coverage goes up, not my fault.

I have been in hospitals in both countries and I believe the Mexican hospital treated me better.  But since I have the best insurance my government can give me as a retired State worker I should just shut up and let my insurance company and hospital post billion dollar profits every year.  If a doctor can’t make $1000 an hour the practice closes.

Anthropogenic Climate Change: Trust is the issue

One side believes whatever government and big business says, the other believes government and big business says is a deliberate lie. Both are wrong, of course.

And that makes Anthropogenic Climate Change the classic example of ostensibly non-political partisanship. Of course it is political because government wants you to trust it, and they have the resources to scorn, degrade, belittle and shame you if you question it. The other side only has humor (mainly sarcasm).

The issue is NOT global warming, which is a scientific fact. The globe is warming about a degree per century. The issue is Climate Change and what part humanity plays.

Unless we are going to equate “warming” with “climate” we have to differentiate the two. In grade school I was taught climate was tropical, sub-tropical, temperate, sub-arctic and polar. Maybe there is a revised list, but to decide it there is climate change we need to cite examples, and those exampled cannot be tied directly to warming because warming is agreed.

So extended ranges in northern Canada and polar ice melting is warming temperature. Right? The only other example I know of, and please correct me if I am wrong, is the greening of the sub-sahara.

Which brings us to a trust issue mentioned in the first paragraph. If one side does not trust the other side where does one go for information? Luckily there are plenty of people who collect information and put it into a cogent form. The government web sites all average satellite and ground taken temperatures to make what they claim is the most accurate temperature average. But others don’t trust the government to average temperatures since the government no doubt has a vested interest in selling Climate Change to the public.

So here is a graph made with only satellite temperature data

2017 to 1979 Global Warming


There is no doubt that taking satellite data alone gives dramatically different data than the averages proposed by the Powers That Be, so there is a trust issue. Where do we go to resolve the trust issue? At that point I draw a blank. Any suggestions?

And then we get to the more complicated issue of precisely how CO2 drives Climate Change. The stock answer is The Greenhouse Effect, but that is a non-answer since it is like answering how humans got to dominate the earth by Evolution. It does not provide a precise enough answer.

I have investigated and found solid data that humanity is responsible for between 21% and 42% of the increase in CO2 in the atmosphere since the 1970s (from 0.032% to 0.040%). What I have not found is the formula or direct tie between that increase and the increase in temperature. Seems like it would be easy to do, but it is not. I can tell you why but I feel I am losing you already.

So let’s stop here for the day. Is warming the same thing as climate? And how does one know CO2 is the cause of warming? Can we believe whatever the government says? Can we accept that the other side of our partisan dichotomy has as good a reason for believing what they believe as we do for believing what we believe?

Does anyone really believe they are open minded about climate change? Really? I mean, I was just shown this article (below) that references real data, and look at the headline!

The article ostensibly debunks those of us who believe satellite data alone is a better measure of global warming since its availability in the 1970s. But, the article says, orbits deteriorate, the 6 or 8 satellites lose synch, on and on, and so they correct that data by 140% upward and that still doesn’t show such a large growth in warming as predicted. If you add thermometers and hot air balloons and average all the data you get much faster global warming.

And the “corrected data” shows “140% faster warming” than uncorrected data. But then read the data., How can you keep a straight face?

The computer models on average predicted 18% warming between 1979- 2016 the lowest computer model prediction was 6% the highest was 40%. The actual warming turned out to be 5% After correction. And the article says it was “a bit lower than expected”.

This article was written to de-bunk those who claim satellite data alone shows less global warming, that satellite data alone should be corrected by 140% higher. And if you do, then you will get 5% warming, which is still a hell of a lot less than predicted. But hey, no journalist wants to be called a Denier, but you have to be an Al Gore or a Bill Nye if you want to lie about scientific data. So you report the corrected data and write that it is still “a bit lower than expected”. 40% was predicted but it was really 5%, which is truly a bit lower than expected.

Here is what the article says for those of you too lazy to click it yourself:

“While the new RSS v4 records show more warming than surface records since 1979, this behavior would to some extent be expected. Climate models on average project around 18% amplification over the 1979-2016 period, though this value ranges from as low as 6% to as high as 40% in individual climate models. Even with these new corrections, there is evidence that the rate of warming of the troposphere is a bit lower than expected by climate models in recent years.”

A new paper published in the Journal of Climate reveals that the lower part of the Earth’s atmosphere has warmed much faster since 1979 than scientists relying on…

Immigration Ignorance

The immigration laws would be silly in many cases if it did not affect the lives of the equivalent of the entire populations of New York City, Los Angeles and Chicago combined. But we all know these laws are not likely to change.

The U.S. Congress is frozen, unmovable. And until the laws change there will be no change in the situation undocumented residents find themselves.  And we continue to believe “they” can just apply for citizenship or “they” committed a crime or don’t pay taxes…  so many misconceptions.

About half of all the estimated 12 million undocumented or “illegal” immigrants who are living in the US entered the country legally but overstayed their Visas. The vast majority live with family, and many in the family are US citizens.

Remember our border is 2000 miles long and would take six months to walk, or if there were a super highway that ran the length of the border it would take several days to drive it at the speed limit.  A passenger airline would take about 4 hours if there were a direct flight.  The entire border is with Mexico and the border was fixed by treaty in 1963 to be mostly along lines of an 1889 treaty.  The US won nearly half of Mexico in a war, and the inhabitants had the choice of staying in the US or going to Mexico.  The overwhelming majority chose to stay in the US., but of course there were no border restrictions in those days.

Fifty eight percent of those living in the US without a visa are Mexican nationals and the new border security has made it much more difficult for people to cross our Mexican border. Ironically that has increased the likelihood that an undocumented resident of any nationality will remain in the US undocumented rather than return.

Undocumented children, when they reach age 16 or so feel as American as I am, having gone through our school system. But they are not eligible for loans or grants for College, or until this law is signed, in-state tuition in Connecticut. All of them know a lot more about this country and the English language than the country and language of their citizenship. But here they can’t work, drive, or enter our military. College is usually out of the question as well.
The Anchor Baby issue rears its head now and again.  After the Civil War the 14th Amendment to the Constitution made it very, very clear that people born in the US, like black people, are US citizens.  The belief is that people come to the US to have babies so that they can stay in the US.  Statistics does not back up this belief, and neither does the law.  People of whatever background have babies at numbers in accordance with that background, or fewer.  And although children born in the US can stay it would take about 30 years before a child could grow to adult and apply for citizenship for their parents and make their parents legal residents.  Hardly a reasonable investment of time.

The primary reason for coming to and living in the US is to live with family, to work in plentiful agricultural, food service and other low paying jobs, and because it is very difficult to visit here.  If you leave you will most likely never, ever be able to return.

I have lived and worked illegally in two countries, and my visa expired once in Mexico.  I did not know it, of course, when any of those events took place.  I was offered a job and I took it and the company that hired me never told me what I was doing was against local immigration law.  The first time I was a tour guide and the issue never came up.  The second time I didn’t realize I had been illegal until I investigated the laws from a computer years later.

Mexico does not require a visa to enter if you are a US citizen, unless you travel more than 30 miles from the border.  The visa is free, but if you do travel further than 30 miles and you don’t get the visa you, and you are caught, you will need to pay an fine of approximately $30 US.  Nearly every other country on earth except the US has provisions to pay a fine to come to terms with immigration violations, but the US requires those without a valid visa to leave the US in order to come to terms. If you do that you better have a very, very good US lawyer or you will not be allowed back.

The Vaccination Examination and Healthy Lies

Certain hot-button topics are just given and not open for examination.  Anthropogenic Climate Change, Vaccines, Chemtrails and Government Conspiracies  top the lists.  Whenever any of these subjects is broached all people who consider themselves reasonable just shut down, nothing could possibly be said to add to what they know about these subjects.

Therefore these are partisan issues.  No reason will be considered, well, unless it is to criticize the people who don’t believe reasonably.  Perhaps it all started like this: The people who don’t believe in (for example) vaccines are idiots because vaccines wiped out Small Pox.  Then all kinds of other jumped on with all the good things vaccines do and what idiots anyone who has a question about vaccines must be.

So it is difficult to be non-partisan.  You must be an idiot to even listen to any argument that doesn’t say All Vaccines Are Good.  You can just say Vaccines Save Lives and you are on the right side of the argument and never have to learn anything more about vaccines.

I can now tell you my personal experience about vaccination, but the only reason I would do that is to get you sympathy and break communications barriers to ask you to listen to an argument.  But why the fuck won’t you listen to the argument anyway?  Don’t you care about critical thinking?  Is your partisanship so strong that now you don’t care about arguments, only belittling people who don’t mindlessly believe as you do?

The misleading issue is Vaccine Effectiveness.  In fact my problem is larger, all across the health field, where people lie to you, misrepresent and change the meanings of common words, in order to help you.  Zostavax, the shingles vaccine, claims 51% effectiveness.  That would mean, if words are given their normal definition, that you have a 51% reduced risk of getting shingles if you take the vaccine.  I believe that is misleading, and intentionally so.

We all know that smoking causes lung cancer too.  And by the same token I think that statement is intentionally misleading.  If someone gets lung cancer we immediately think ***did they smoke***?

“As many as 20% of the people who die from lung cancer in the United States every year do not smoke or use any other form of tobacco” says the American Cancer Society in an article that attempts to justify the belief that smoking causes cancer.  If you search for your lifetime risk of getting lung cancer you will get all kinds of articles explaining how much MORE likely you are to get cancer if you smoke than if you don’t smoke.

So that is the issue with nearly all health care recommendations.  You cannot easily find your risk of getting cancer, but it is very easy to find your risk INCREASE with behavior or exposure. By this yardstick the primary cause of drowning is swimming.  Nearly everyone who drowns was swimming.

One’s lifetime risk overall of getting lung cancer is about 7% according to the  Lifetime Risk Chart of the American Cancer Society  whether you smoke or never smoked.  So your increased risk if you smoke is averaged over all other people.  If my math is correct 80% of that 7% chance are smokers, and 20% of them are never-smokers according to the site above.  Smoking causes cancer, therefore, in 5% of smokers.  And lung cancer kills 2% of neversmokers and has the ACS jumping through hoops to explain it.

Smoking increases your risk of dying from lung cancer in your lifetime from 2% to 5%.  I am not trying to justify smoking, it is dirty and unhealthy in many other ways besides your increased risk of lung cancer.  But what I am discussing here is the how the health care industry has brainwashed everyone by giving us statistics that mean very, very little.

Which is what happens with Zostavax.  Bringing this issue to many “skeptics” has gotten me banned from further discussions.  All a skeptic seems to care about is that vaccines are good and anyone who questions is therefore wrong.  There are huge studies, all orchestrated and quoted everywhere.  Here is a good example: Zostavax Study

The main thrust of their argument, why they recommend anyone over 60 take the vaccine, is that in a study of 38,000 people over 60, half vaccinate, half receive placebo.  The claim is 51% fewer people got shingles in the vaccinated group.  To confuse the issue a lot of time and space is devoted to how the symptoms of shingles (post herpetic neurolgia) were lessened in those who got shingles in the vaccinated group. It is not explained that one must be in the unlucky 49% in order to benefit from lesser symptoms.

So just like the smoking issue, what are the chances I would get shingles without the vaccine?  A difficult figure to find, but we can easily know it is less if I take the vaccine.  Over one’s life time one has a 33% chance of getting shingles, however the vaccine does not cover the lifetime.  It only works for a disputed amount of time.  Full strength for 3 years, then it is less effective for a few years, and whether or not one has taken the vaccine is statistically insignificant after 7 years.

The chances of getting shingles go up with age, but the best numbers available are the numbers of this study 38,000 people over 60 meticulously documented and tested.  So what are the figures?

Overall the chance of getting shingles in that age group is 7.8 per 1000 person-years.  So any given year a person over 60 has a 0.78% chance of getting shingles.  That risk is reduced by 51% for at least three years after taking the vaccine.  To a lesser extent one is protected for an additional couple years but no protection at all after 7 years.

The numbers work out to about 3.4% will get shingles in the over 60 group without the vaccine and 1.6% with the vaccine.  Another way to put it is the $250 vaccine will help about 1.8% of the people who buy it.  For every 120 people who buy the vaccine one is prevented from getting shingles.

Please check my figures, I would love to find out I am wrong.

The numbers are worse for the HPV vaccine.

The salient point is the Number Needed to Treat (NNT) in order to prevent one case of the disease. Presumably the disease in this case is Cervical Cancer, so the number to treat is somewhere between 324 and 9080. Estimating NNT for the HPV vaccine

The series of three shots costs about $500 in the US or Canada. 324 time $500 equals $162,000, and times 9080, my calculator must be broken…That how much it costs all of the customers of Merck who bought Guardasil9 for every case of cancer prevented.

And if your insurance covers the cost you can bet the insurance company did not lose money on the deal either.